Real-time naive case fatality rates can reflect timeliness of case confirmation during pandemics.
Identifieur interne : 000794 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000793; suivant : 000795Real-time naive case fatality rates can reflect timeliness of case confirmation during pandemics.
Auteurs : Rui Qi [République populaire de Chine] ; Cong Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiao-Bin Hu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xue-Jie Yu [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Journal of infection and public health [ 1876-035X ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Chine (épidémiologie), Europe (épidémiologie), Facteurs temps (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Pandémies (statistiques et données numériques), Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic), Pneumopathie virale (mortalité), Retard de diagnostic (MeSH), République de Corée (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- diagnostic : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- statistiques et données numériques : Pandémies.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Europe, République de Corée.
- Betacoronavirus, Facteurs temps, Humains, Retard de diagnostic.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Betacoronavirus (MeSH), China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Delayed Diagnosis (MeSH), Europe (epidemiology), Humans (MeSH), Pandemics (statistics & numerical data), Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (mortality), Republic of Korea (epidemiology), Time Factors (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, Europe, Republic of Korea.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- statistics & numerical data : Pandemics.
- Betacoronavirus, Delayed Diagnosis, Humans, Time Factors.
Abstract
An objective law was observed that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) of a disease will decrease early and then gradually increase infinitely near the true CFR as time went on during an outbreak. The normal growth of naive CFR was an inherent character rather than indicating the disease was becoming more severe. According to the law, by monitoring real-time naive CFRs, it can help outbreak-controllers know if there were many cases left unconfirmed or undiscovered in the outbreak. We reflected on the use of the naive CFR in the context of COVID-19 outbreaks. The results showed that Hubei Province of China, France and South Korea had cases that were not confirmed in a timely manner during the initial stages of the outbreak. Delayed case confirmations existed for long periods of time in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Monitoring of real-time naive CFRs could be helpful for decision-makers to identify under-reporting of cases during pandemics.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.07.012
PubMed: 32798184
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Electronic address: yuxuejie@whu.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Wuhan University School of Health Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan, Hubei Province</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hubei Province</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of infection and public health</title><idno type="eISSN">1876-035X</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Delayed Diagnosis (MeSH)</term><term>Europe (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (mortality)</term><term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term><term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Europe (épidémiologie)</term><term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term><term>Pandémies (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (mortalité)</term><term>Retard de diagnostic (MeSH)</term><term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term><term>Europe</term><term>Republic of Korea</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnosis" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnostic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Pandémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Europe</term><term>République de Corée</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Delayed Diagnosis</term><term>Humans</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Retard de diagnostic</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An objective law was observed that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) of a disease will decrease early and then gradually increase infinitely near the true CFR as time went on during an outbreak. The normal growth of naive CFR was an inherent character rather than indicating the disease was becoming more severe. According to the law, by monitoring real-time naive CFRs, it can help outbreak-controllers know if there were many cases left unconfirmed or undiscovered in the outbreak. We reflected on the use of the naive CFR in the context of COVID-19 outbreaks. The results showed that Hubei Province of China, France and South Korea had cases that were not confirmed in a timely manner during the initial stages of the outbreak. Delayed case confirmations existed for long periods of time in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Monitoring of real-time naive CFRs could be helpful for decision-makers to identify under-reporting of cases during pandemics.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32798184</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1876-035X</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>13</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Sep</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of infection and public health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Infect Public Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Real-time naive case fatality rates can reflect timeliness of case confirmation during pandemics.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1363-1366</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1876-0341(20)30592-X</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.jiph.2020.07.012</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>An objective law was observed that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) of a disease will decrease early and then gradually increase infinitely near the true CFR as time went on during an outbreak. The normal growth of naive CFR was an inherent character rather than indicating the disease was becoming more severe. According to the law, by monitoring real-time naive CFRs, it can help outbreak-controllers know if there were many cases left unconfirmed or undiscovered in the outbreak. We reflected on the use of the naive CFR in the context of COVID-19 outbreaks. The results showed that Hubei Province of China, France and South Korea had cases that were not confirmed in a timely manner during the initial stages of the outbreak. Delayed case confirmations existed for long periods of time in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Monitoring of real-time naive CFRs could be helpful for decision-makers to identify under-reporting of cases during pandemics.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Qi</LastName><ForeName>Rui</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Cong</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Changzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hu</LastName><ForeName>Xiao-Bin</ForeName><Initials>XB</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName><ForeName>Xue-Jie</ForeName><Initials>XJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Wuhan University School of Health Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. 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